Why the enemy talks of peace on Valentine’s Day

The Taliban are reaching out again to the US for a few reasons…

That they think they can ultimately defeat the official government of Afghanistan is likely not one of them.

Guardian article on latest outreach.

As the capabilities of the Afghan security forces increase, as the support of Afghan coalition partners continues, and as groups like ISIS muscle the Taliban and its allies out of certain areas…the Taliban are reassessing their odds of success.

They see dropping morale in their ranks. They see the angry backlash by Afghan citizens when the Taliban commits an attack against non combatants. They wonder how long their Pakistani supporters can sustain their sanctuaries and funding. They too are trying to figure out how to explain to their militias that after 17 years “Victory” is close at hand. They just watched how a Muslim and non-Muslim coalition crushed the ISIS army. They are worried that they miss a chance for a political solution and some shred of power in society if they continue to play hardball about peace talks. They are watching more and more allies splinter away from their cause (Hekmatyar is gone).

It’s useful to assess the Taliban position now and then…those assessing Taliban strength that think the Taliban feel invincible should probably reassess.

Those who study these types of wars, and studied the Taliban movement, and admitted the extent of Pakistan’s duplicity knew this was going to take decades to resolve.

Let’s hope Afghan Allie’s have the resolve to keep up the pressure and then add even more…especially on Pakistan.

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