Jason Criss Howk

23 February 2020

Why Pakistan must change its calculations about using Unconventional Warfare against Afghans.

This is from an open forum briefing to an international audience.

The Pakistani generals present during this briefing agreed with the assessment.

I wrote about the outcomes of this discussion here. https://news.clearancejobs.com/2020/02/22/a-regional-perspective-on-the-war-in-afghanistan/

Start briefing:

Pakistan has had a very simple goal in Afghanistan since the late 1970s

Each time they tried to send a proxy into Kabul to create a pliant Afghanistan government they have failed

No government installed by Pakistan has been internationally recognized as legitimate and been able to withstand the pressures of governance

Pakistan has had little success governing their own nation, so no surprise they couldn’t set up a government in Kabul

Afghanistan was able to do many things to thwart the current Pakistan UW campaign against them.

There have been many key actions along the way that stopped taliban momentum.

The world gave the Afghans the precious time they needed to rebuild.

The #ANDSF are the most valuable institution today & it is loyal to the elected republic government. They are professional & capable.

The Taliban no longer want to face the ANDSF, they choose to run away when they can.

The foot soldiers of the Taliban are eager for peace options

We are entering the phase of this war that was started in 2009.

The US has been clear on the negotiation process with the Pakistan proxy force called the taliban movement

Next stage is the direct talks between the Legitimate Afghan government and the Taliban movement

There are actions that Afghans must avoid if they want to have a peaceful and stable country.

There are also actions the world expects Pakistan to take, to bring peace and economic progress to the region.

The options are pretty stark for Pakistan

The majority of the world supports the Afghan republic government and despises the Taliban butchers

Pakistan can either side with the majority of the world, or slip downwards into pariah state status with their terrorist allies

Jason Howk is a professor of Islamic and National Security studies and has worked on Afghanistan portfolios since 2002.

His views do not represent the views of any US or Afghan government entity