Jason Criss Howk
23 February 2020
Why Pakistan must change its calculations about using Unconventional Warfare against Afghans.
This is from an open forum briefing to an international audience.
The Pakistani generals present during this briefing agreed with the assessment.
I wrote about the outcomes of this discussion here. https://news.clearancejobs.com/2020/02/22/a-regional-perspective-on-the-war-in-afghanistan/
Pakistan has had a very simple goal in Afghanistan since the late 1970s
Each time they tried to send a proxy into Kabul to create a pliant Afghanistan government they have failed
No government installed by Pakistan has been internationally recognized as legitimate and been able to withstand the pressures of governance
Pakistan has had little success governing their own nation, so no surprise they couldn’t set up a government in Kabul
Afghanistan was able to do many things to thwart the current Pakistan UW campaign against them.
There have been many key actions along the way that stopped taliban momentum.
The world gave the Afghans the precious time they needed to rebuild.
The #ANDSF are the most valuable institution today & it is loyal to the elected republic government. They are professional & capable.
The Taliban no longer want to face the ANDSF, they choose to run away when they can.
The foot soldiers of the Taliban are eager for peace options
We are entering the phase of this war that was started in 2009.
The US has been clear on the negotiation process with the Pakistan proxy force called the taliban movement
Next stage is the direct talks between the Legitimate Afghan government and the Taliban movement
There are actions that Afghans must avoid if they want to have a peaceful and stable country.
There are also actions the world expects Pakistan to take, to bring peace and economic progress to the region.
The options are pretty stark for Pakistan
The majority of the world supports the Afghan republic government and despises the Taliban butchers
Pakistan can either side with the majority of the world, or slip downwards into pariah state status with their terrorist allies
Jason Howk is a professor of Islamic and National Security studies and has worked on Afghanistan portfolios since 2002.
His views do not represent the views of any US or Afghan government entity
One thought on “Briefing on Pakistan’s campaigns against Afghanistan and why they have failed repeatedly”
A very thoughtful analysis, As you said, Pakistan has been waging Unconventional Warfare through its proxies (Mujahideen and Taliban) against Afghanistan for as early as 1970. ANDSF are capable to deal with the proxies. But Pakistan needs to be under watch for its expansionist behavior towards India and moving into Chinese lap, Pakistan will turn it into a pariah state similar to North Korea.